Jakovenko Joins Leaders, Dominguez Stumbles in Penultimate Round
The tension is indeed rising in Khanty-Mansiysk, as just one round remains in the 2014-2015 FIDE Grand Prix Cycle. The highly-anticipated matchup between two of the leaders, Fabiano Caruana and Hikaru Nakamura was drawn despite Hikaru's daring choice of the Sicilian Dragon.The other leader, Leinier Dominguez went down to Baduur Jobava (who scored his first win), while Dmitry Jakovenko managed to defeat Sergey Karjakin to tie the leaders with 6.0/10 and keep his qualification hopes very much alive.
Fabiano Caruana - Hikaru Nakamura 1/2-/1/2
Despite not needing to risk anything, Nakamura chose the Sicilian Dragon against Caruana, and the two engaged in the theoretical variation 9.0-0-0 d5. "I haven't faced the Dragon in a long time", mentioned Caruana, who got a slight edge in the middlegame in the form of a better pawn structure:
Dmitry Jakovenko - Sergey Karjakin 1-0
Both players desperately needed to win today in order to retain any chances of finishing in the top two places of the Grand Prix, and so they engaged in the always sharp Semi-Slav Defense. Black had some piece activity in the middlegame, but after the strong 24.Bb4! White seized the initiative and Karjakin was forced to sacrifice his queen. In a long and complex endgame Jakovenko needed a few hours to break down Sergey's fortress, but eventually managed to break through.
Annotations by GM Dejan Bojkov:
Baduur Jobava - Leinier Dominguez 1-0
Baduur repeated his pet line of the Scotch Gambit and was surprised by the move 13...Bb7, and after 14.Nd2 c5! the game saw some interesting complications which seemed to have given Black full equality. Dominguez soon drifted, however, first with 19...Qh5?! (where the queen was out of play according to Jobava), and then with 22...Ba5?, which left White with an overwhelming positional advantage. Leinier's original intention was to play 24...Rfc8, but he admitted that he overlooked 25.Rc6!, after which Black cannot defend both the bishop on d5 and pawn on c7.
With a large advantage Jobava progessed slowly, but was able to convert with some nice technique in a rook endgame:
Alexander Grischuk - Anish Giri 1/2-1/2
Another Semi-Slav, against which Grischuk chose the rare 6.Be2, followed by advancing his a-pawn. The game quickly turned unusual, with the structure resembling a 'Stonewall Dutch'. Giri advanced on the kingside while Grischuk made way on the queen's flank and eventually in the center with 20.d5!, opening things up. In time-trouble Grischuk offered a draw in a complicated position where he probably had the better chances, but the reader can assess for themselves:
Boris Gelfand - Evgeny Tomashevsky 1/2-1/2
A very interesting opening, where Gelfand tried 5.Qc2 against the Chebanenko Slav and sacrificed a pawn. Tomashevsky accepted the gambit but soon returned his extra pawn (and then another) in order to complete his development and equalize. The players soon repeated moves in an equal middlegame:
Maxime-Vachier Lagrave - Peter Svidler 1/2-1/2
The two players who are struggling with their form the most played it safe today in a classical Ruy Lopez, exchanging lots of pieces until they reached a drawish rook and bishop endgame:
Round 10 Standings
| # | Name | Rtg | Perf | Pts | SB | GP Points |
| 1 | Jakovenko,Dmitry | 2738 | 2823 | 6.0/10 | 28.50 | 140 |
| 2 | Caruana,Fabiano | 2803 | 2818 | 6.0/10 | 27.75 | 140 |
| 3 | Nakamura,Hikaru | 2799 | 2823 | 6.0/10 | 27.50 | 140 |
| 4 | Dominguez,Leinier | 2734 | 2789 | 5.5/10 | 28.00 | 85 |
| 5 | Gelfand,Boris | 2744 | 2791 | 5.5/10 | 27.00 | 85 |
| 6 | Grischuk,Alexander | 2780 | 2755 | 5.0/10 | 24.25 | 60 |
| 7 | Giri,Anish | 2776 | 2749 | 5.0/10 | 23.50 | 60 |
| 8 | Karjakin,Sergey | 2753 | 2756 | 5.0/10 | 23.00 | 60 |
| 9 | Svidler,Peter | 2734 | 2729 | 4.5/10 | 23.50 | 35 |
| 10 | Tomashevsky,Evgeny | 2749 | 2722 | 4.5/10 | 22.50 | 35 |
| 11 | Jobava,Baadur | 2699 | 2693 | 4.0/10 | 20 | |
| 12 | Vachier-Lagrave,Maxime | 2754 | 2609 | 3.0/10 | 10 |
Virtual GP standings
| Rank | Name | Rtg | Baku | Tashkent | Tbilisi | Ka-Ma | Total | Virtual |
| 1 | Fabiano Caruana | 2811 | 155 | 75 | 140 | 230 | 370 | |
| 2 | Hikaru Nakamura | 2776 | 82 | 125 | 140 | 207 | 347 | |
| 7 | Dmitry Jakovenko | 2733 | 30 | 140 | 140 | 170 | 310 | |
| 4 | Evgeny Tomashevsky | 2716 | 82 | 170 | 35 | 252 | 287 | |
| 6 | Boris Gelfand | 2747 | 155 | 15 | 85 | 170 | 255 | |
| 5 | Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 2759 | 35 | 125 | 75 | 235 | 235 | |
| 3 | Sergey Karjakin | 2760 | 82 | 75 | 60 | 157 | 217 | |
| 8 | Teimour Radjabov | 2731 | 50 | 50 | 110 | 210 | 210 | |
| 10 | Dmitry Andreikin | 2737 | 20 | 170 | 10 | 200 | 200 | |
| 12 | Alexander Grischuk | 2810 | 82 | 40 | 60 | 122 | 182 | |
| 13 | Anish Giri | 2797 | 40 | 75 | 60 | 115 | 175 | |
| 9 | Leinier Dominguez | 2726 | 10 | 75 | 85 | 85 | 170 | |
| 11 | Peter Svidler | 2739 | 82 | 20 | 35 | 102 | 137 | |
| 14 | Baadur Jobava | 2696 | 75 | 40 | 20 | 115 | 135 | |
| 15 | Rustam Kasimdzhanov | 2706 | 35 | 15 | 75 | 125 | 125 | |
| 16 | Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 2775 | 75 | 40 | 10 | 115 | 125 |
The final round takes place May 26, with the key game Nakamura-Jakovenko that will potentially determine not only the winner of the tournament, but also the overall Grand Prix.
The situation before the last round is well described on the blog Chess by the numbers by Tai Pruce-Zimmerman from North Bend, Oregon — “an accountant and chess enthusiast (and major patzer!)” as he describes himself.
According to Pruce-Zimmerman the odds are as follows:
Fabiano Caruana: 92.6% chance of qualifying.
Hikaru Nakamura: 87.6% chance of qualifying.
Dmitry Jakovenko: 19.5% chance of qualifying.
Evgeny Tomashevsky: 0.3% chance of qualifying.
The tournament is a round robin of 11 rounds, played from May 14-26. The venue is the Ugra Chess Center in Khanty-Mansiysk, Russia.
You can watch this tournament every day on Chess.com/tv with commentary by GMs Evgeny Miroshnichenko and Viorel Iordachescu.
