Fair Play Team Estimates Cheating Rate In Titled Tuesday, New Public Closure Policy

A new study by Chess.com's Fair Play Team has estimated the cheating rate in Titled Tuesday to be less than 2% for most events. However, the platform is introducing a new public closure policy to underscore the commitment to combat cheating.

The extent of cheating in Chess.com's popular Titled Tuesday events continues to be a hotly debated topic among chess fans, and in particular, some of the world's very best players.

A new 16-page report published today by the Fair Play Team, which consists of more than 30 people, delves deeper into players' performances in the events, using advanced statistical models to provide a clearer picture of the prevalence of cheating. 

According to the report, the key takeaway is that the estimated cheating rate (ECR) is almost always below 2% but generally greater than zero. This means that while cheating exists in most Titled Tuesday events, it involves a small fraction of participants.

From March 20, 2023, to March 19, 2024, the ECR closely aligned with the Fair Play team's actions, which saw 1.1% of Titled Tuesday participants closed for cheating. 

The newly developed statistical model allowed the team to identify players who overperformed relative to expectations. The report notes that overperformance alone does not indicate cheating but can be explained by natural variance.

"While not every overperformance is cheating, by calculating surplus overperformance we can provide the chess community with our best estimate of the extent of cheating that is occurring in Titled Tuesday," the report notes, adding some interesting statistics on the amount of closed accounts:

• Of the 674 players who overperformed at least once during that period, 3.6% of them were eventually closed for cheating that happened in Titled Tuesday
• Among the remaining 3,666 players who never overperformed in Titled Tuesday during the one-year period, the Chess.com Fair Play Team closed only 0.7% of them for cheating that happened in Titled Tuesday.

The new report comes three months after the first report, which acknowledged that cheating does occur but concluded that it’s unlikely that large-scale cheating is happening in the popular prize event series for titled players. However, the report also notes: 

"It is important to emphasize that while our analysis shows that the vast majority of games and players are clean, a cheating rate of even 1% is unacceptable and a serious issue in Titled Tuesday. Within the Fair Play Team, our constant focus is on preventing cheating and closing those who have cheated," the report said.

It is important to emphasize that while our analysis shows that the vast majority of games and players are clean, a cheating rate of even 1% is unacceptable and a serious issue in Titled Tuesday. 

In light of the numbers, Chess.com also announced a major shift in how fair play violations will be addressed. Previously, the vast majority of titled players have had their accounts privately closed. That will now change, as IM Kassa Korley, Director of Professional Relations, said:

Going forward, we plan to publicly mark as closed the accounts of any titled player who violates our fair play policy either A) in a prize event, or B) in casual play on a second chance account.

Chess.com said it plans to improve its anti-cheating measures and release new software that will provide improved oversight of all players in Titled Tuesday and other prize events.