Arjun, Caruana, Abdusattorov, Firouzja Battle For FIDE Circuit Candidates Spot

GM Arjun Erigaisi tops the leaderboard to win the 2024 FIDE Circuit and become the first player to qualify for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament, but things are complicated. The 2023 Circuit winner GM Fabiano Caruana and top-10 stars Nodirbek Abdusattorov and Alireza Firouzja are among the players who could overtake the Indian forerunner before the end of the year.

By December 13 at the latest, we’ll know the winner of the 2024 FIDE Chess World Championship match in Singapore between reigning champion GM Ding Liren and challenger GM Gukesh Dommaraju, while a couple of weeks later we’ll also learn who will be the first player to qualify for the eight-player FIDE Candidates Tournament to decide the next challenger in 2026.

What Is The FIDE Circuit?

The FIDE Circuit was the path for Gukesh to the 2024 Candidates after he finished second to Caruana, who had already qualified via the World Cup.

This year, it’s another Indian who currently tops the leaderboard—2799-rated Arjun.

The FIDE Circuit is an attempt to measure how well players have performed over a full year, assigning points for performances in strong tournaments. For the 2024 Candidates it decided one place, while for 2026 it will decide two, with the Circuit being held separately in both 2024 and 2025.

Here are the top scores this year, to give an idea of how players have earned their points.

Top-5 Scores In Events Eligible For The FIDE Circuit 

The basic calculation is to take the average rating of the top-eight players in an event, remove 2500, divide by 100, and multiply the result by the points allocated for places—for instance, 11 points for sole first place. Firouzja's Sinquefield Cup score is determined this way:

A 2760.625 average (excluding GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave’s 2721 and Ding’s 2745 from the 10-player event) - 2500 = 260.625, divided by 100 = 2.60625, multiplied by 11 for Firouzja’s sole first place = 28.67.  

Sometimes I scare myself pic.twitter.com/ket5iC9Sev

— Alireza Firouzja (@AlirezaFirouzja) August 28, 2024

The details are much more complicated and came under criticism earlier this year, with Caruana joined by GMs Anish Giri and Levon Aronian in pointing out issues such as GM Leon Luke Mendonca earning more points for winning the Tata Steel Challengers than Giri, Abdusattorov, and Gukesh earned for tying for first place in the Masters—explained by a points boost for taking sole first and points going to only the top-three players in a round-robin.

There are many more rules to take into account, and it’s illustrative to see some of the events that don’t earn points:

• The stunning performances of Gukesh, Arjun, and Abdusattorov in the FIDE Chess Olympiad don’t count as the Circuit is for only individual and not team events.
• Norway Chess doesn’t count as there must be at least eight players.
• The American Cup (won by Aronian) didn’t count as players must come from at least three different federations, while the U.S. Championship (won by Caruana) did, since an exception is made for national championships.

When it comes to assessing the current race, the most important details are the requirements to be eligible to qualify for the Candidates.

The Race To The 2026 Candidates

The current FIDE Circuit leaderboard can be misleading, since up to seven events (changed from five in 2023) are counted, and the players have competed in differing numbers of tournaments. The average score per event for the top players can give an indication of their potential.

Average Circuit Points/Event For The Top-7 FIDE Circuit Players 



Does that mean Gukesh is in a better position than Arjun? No! The events to the end of the year are limited, and the current challenger is unlikely to make it to the Candidates via the Circuit. His hopes this year are all on winning the match!

The requirements to have a chance of reaching the Candidates from the FIDE Circuit are as follows:

4.2 To be eligible for FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026 qualification, a player's final score shall consist of at least five tournaments (including at least four standard tournaments).

Among these tournaments there shall be:

4.2.1 At least two standard tournaments with the participation of more than 50 players*, if his/her final score consists of six or seven tournaments.

4.2.2 At least one standard tournament with the participation of more than 50 players*, if his/her final score consists of five tournaments.

*The player’s event score in any of these tournaments can be 0 points.

The requirement for classical events of over 50 players—e.g., opens—seems to mean that currently only Arjun and GM Amin Tabatabaei are actually eligible to qualify for the Candidates, but that’s set to change in the upcoming events, for instance with Caruana playing the U.S. Masters. 

Check out our wrapup of the big events coming up: From Chennai To Qatar: The Major Tournaments That Close Out 2024.

Now let’s take a look at how the players toward the top of the leaderboard are doing:

1. Arjun Erigaisi


Current score: 102.79

Current rank: 1st

Best score: 25.40 (1st after tiebreaks, WR Chess Masters Cup)

Average score: 14.68

Lowest score: 5.24 (7th, Sharjah Masters)

No. of events: 7 (4 invite-only, 3 opens, 0 rapid/blitz)

Currently eligible for Candidates qualification: Yes

Potential: Arjun is the only player in the 2024 FIDE Circuit to have racked up seven events already, and he’s met all the requirements to qualify for the Candidates. He has a relatively low average but will get a good chance to boost his score further when he plays the Chennai Grand Masters in a week. If he should take sole first, he could use his score of around 25 points to replace his 5.24 from the Sharjah Masters, moving to around 122 points. Either way, he’s setting the bar high for the others.

2. Fabiano Caruana


Current score: 96.92

Current rank: 2nd

Best score: 25 (1st, U.S. Championship)

Average score: 19.38

Lowest score: 13.92 (1st, SuperUnited Croatia Rapid & Blitz)

No. of events: 5 (5 invite-only, 1 rapid/blitz)

Currently eligible for Candidates qualification: No

Potential: Despite Caruana’s criticism of the Circuit for the low number of points available for performing well in the Candidates compared to average open tournaments, he has a good chance of winning the Circuit for the second year in a row. He has the highest average score, but he needs to solve the problem of not having played any opens. That’s likely why he’s taking part in the U.S. Masters, which will currently give around 17.5 points for sole first place. He may need to play another open (e.g., the Qatar Masters in December), however, to be able to use seven scores and really boost his chances. 

3. Nodirbek Abdusattorov


Current score: 92.02

Current rank: 3rd

Best score: 25 (1st, Prague Masters)

Average score: 15.33

Lowest score: 8.19 (2nd, Gashimov Memorial)

No. of events: 6 (6 invite-only, 1 rapid/blitz)

Currently eligible for Candidates qualification: No

Potential: Abdusattorov, like Caruana, needs to play opens, and he’s the top seed for the Qatar Masters, which would currently give 22.15 points. He might also appear in the lineup for the 3rd International President Cup in his native Uzbekistan. The 2021 World Rapid Champion is also a player who could realistically hope to boost his score in the World Rapid Championship at the end of the year—although the rapid score is reduced in importance by being multiplied by 0.8 (it’s 0.6 for the Blitz), sole first place should still earn over 20 points.

4. Alireza Firouzja


Current score: 88.16

Current rank: 4

Best score: 28.67 (1st, Sinquefield Cup)

Average score: 14.69

Lowest score: 6.33 (2nd, SuperUnited Croatia Rapid & Blitz)

No. of events: 6 (6 invite-only, 2 rapid/blitz)

Currently eligible for Candidates qualification: No

Potential: It’s becoming a common theme, but again, Firouzja has the problem that all his scores so far were achieved in small invite-only events. He needs to play opens, but currently doesn’t seem to be signed up for any—that could change fast, however. In 2023 we saw the extraordinary lengths he was willing to go to qualify for the Candidates (by rating) at the last possible moment.    

The remaining players in the race look like long shots, but impressive results by any of several players could change things fast.

5. Amin Tabatabaei


Current score: 56.01

Current rank: 5

Best score: 19.74 (1st, Aeroflot Open)

Average score: 11.20

Lowest score: 7.45 (5th, Sharjah Masters)

No. of events: 5 (1 invite-only, 4 opens, 0 rapid/blitz)

Currently eligible for Candidates qualification: Yes

Potential: The curiosity with Iranian GM Tabatabaei, as we already noted, is that he’s the only top player other than Arjun who has already met the Candidates requirements—in fact, he’s blown them out the water, since just one of his results comes from an invite-only event. He can still boost his score—for example, he’s currently seeded third for the Qatar Masters and plays the Chennai Grand Masters—but the 50-point gap to Arjun will be tough to bridge.

6. Gukesh Dommaraju


Current score: 55.86

Current rank: 6

Best score: 26.94 (1st, Candidates)

Average score: 18.62

Lowest score: 14.22 (2nd, Tata Steel Masters)

No. of events: 3 (3 invite-only, 0 opens, 0 rapid/blitz)

Currently eligible for Candidates qualification: No

Potential: The 2023 qualifier via the FIDE Circuit has built his current score from just three events, which suggests potential, but it’s unlikely he has any classical opens planned for the rest of 2024, so all of his eggs—and those of his opponent Ding—are in the World Championship basket. If Gukesh wins, the FIDE Circuit is irrelevant for him. If he loses, then 2025 will be the year he plots his return to the title match—note that the loser of the match no longer gets an automatic spot in the next Candidates Tournament.

7. Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu


Current score: 54.81

Current rank: 7

Best score: 16.51 (3rd, WR Chess Masters Cup)

Average score: 13.70

Lowest score: 11.36 (2nd, Prague Masters)

No. of events: 4 (4 invite-only, 0 opens, 0 rapid/blitz)

Currently eligible for Candidates qualification: No

Potential: GM Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu hasn’t had quite as stellar a year as some of his Indian colleagues, and although he could still add three events to his current four, it looks unlikely he’ll challenge for the Candidates spot. He needs to play two opens, and he’s also not, for instance, in the field for the Chennai Grand Masters. Again, it looks as though 2025 will be the year he targets for Candidates qualification.

So that’s a glimpse of how the FIDE Circuit race currently looks. The regulations this year, requiring organizers to declare tournaments three months in advance, are designed to avoid last year’s sudden appearance of new events like the Chennai Grand Masters, but that doesn’t mean the race won’t go down to the wire. It’s possible the Candidates spot will be decided in the World Rapid and Blitz Championships at the very end of the year in New York.