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Thoughts on the Italian game: deutz gambit?

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trw0311
all three pieces taking d4 are mistakes, had a 60% win rate for white. First time playing it was a win.

ibrust

I generally just avoid these forcing algorithmic lines in positions that occur very frequently, like the Italian. Because at some point I just expect the opponents are going to know the theory. An e4/e5 player winds up in the italian like 1 in 6 games as black. So I really prefer the piano... because that's a very non-linear position. But that's just my opinion on it. Unfortunately most of the rest of the italian / practically all the lines in the scotch are very algorithmic like this.

trw0311
ibrust wrote:

I generally just avoid these forcing algorithmic lines in positions that occur very frequently, like the Italian. Because at some point I just expect the opponents are going to know the theory. An e4/e5 player winds up in the italian like 1 in 6 games as black. So I really prefer the piano... because that's a very non-linear position. But that's just my opinion on it. Unfortunately most of the rest of the italian / practically all the lines in the scotch are very algorithmic like this.

I think this gambit is pretty uncommon and it seems dubious for white but is riddled with nasty traps. White can still get a decent position even if black knows the correct moves to make which are not natural given what is on the board. Sounds good for blitz and rapid. I played the giuco piano center attack for awhile but have recently become a little more sophisticated with the pianissimo which I really like for slower games.

ibrust
starting position of the italian guioco piano: 
 

from here 4. O-O is the 2nd most popular move and occurs in 25% of games. Black then responds with Nf6...

And now you play 5. d4, which is the 2nd most popular move occurring in 29% of games. And you've reached the Deutz gambit.

So black will face the Deutz gambit in 25% of 29% of his italian games... i.e. about 7.3% of them.

Statistically whether the Deutz performs well depends mostly on blacks immediate response. If he takes back exd4... which 28% of players do, blacks win percentages are bad and the engine doesn't like it either. If black plays the correct move Bxd4... which 65% of players do, his winrates are good and he has a pretty significant engine edge.

So this is basically a gambit the black player will face in 7% of italian games which has a strong 1st-move reply.. black needs to play precisely for a few more moves to secure an edge.

I'm also not really seeing the compensation after just a few moves. Yeah in the game you posted your opponent messed up... but the italian is filled with traps, you don't need to sac a pawn to get some interesting trappy position, you just need to wait a few moves. Of course it's harder to memorize the traps at that point... But also harder for your opponent to memorize a refutation.

Doesn't seem very good to me...

I've also been playing the move 4. O-O... in a few positions I've gone for d4 in one move as well. But after waiting, not immediately and not always. It depends on the move order, you can just play c3 or Re1 and wait for the position to ripen, and sometimes d4 becomes available. But playing it right away... meh

trw0311
ibrust wrote:
starting position of the guioco piano: 
 

from here 4. O-O is the 2nd most popular move and occurs in 25% of games. Black then responds with Nf6...

And now you play 5. d4, which is the 2nd move popular move occurring in 29% of games. And you've reached the Deutz gambit.

So black will face the Deutz gambit in 25% of 29% of his guioco piano games... i.e. about 7.3% of them.

Statistically whether the Deutz performs well depends mostly on blacks immediate response. If he takes back exd4... which 28% of players do, blacks win percentages are bad and the engine doesn't like it either. If black plays the correct move Bxd4... which 65% of players do, his winrates are good and he has a pretty significant engine edge.

So this is basically a gambit the black player will face in 7% of italian games which has a strong 1st-move reply.. black needs to play precisely for a few more moves to secure an edge.

I'm also not really seeing the compensation after just a few moves. Yeah your opponent messed up... but the italian is filled with traps, you don't need to sac a pawn to get some interesting trappy position.

Doesn't seem very good to me...

I've also been playing the move 4. O-O... in a few positions I've gone for d4 in one move as well. But after waiting, not immediately and not always. It depends on the move order, you can just play c3 or Re1 and wait for the position to ripen, and sometimes d4 becomes available. But playing it right away... meh -

bishop takes is still pretty tricky for black, albeit better than the other options. White just plays Bg5 pinning the queen and there is a nasty trap that follows with natural moves.

ibrust

Not 65% winrate, 65% of players playing the correct move. Winrate is like 50-50 or so. But engine thinks it's like -0.15 for black, I wouldn't want to go down that much in 65% of games. Very large sample size, 2200+ elo on lichess - guioco piano is one of the most played positions in chess.

trw0311
ibrust wrote:

Not 65% winrate, 65% of players playing the correct move. Winrate is like 50-50 or so. But I wouldn't engine thinks it's like -0.15 for black, I wouldn't want to go down that much in 65% of games.

I just edited i misread that.