Dear readers,

I believe most of you are familiar with a term called the "Butterfly Effect", one of the most famous concepts of Chaos Theory. For those who are not, I will start this blog with a brief explanation, so that the rest of the text will make more sense when we get to the chess-related parts.

The term itself is associated with the work of mathematician and meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz, with contributions from physicist Henri Poincaré, and philosopher Norbert Wiener. Lorenz noticed that his weather model failed to reproduce the results of runs with unrounded conditional data. A minimal change in the initial conditions had always produced significantly different results.

He described it using an illustrative example, saying that the details of a tornado, like the exact time it formed or the path it took, could have been greatly influenced by many smaller disturbances, such as a distant butterfly flapping its wings several weeks earlier on the other side of the world. Hence the name "Butterfly Effect".

So basically, it is related to the idea that the present is very sensitive to the initial conditions of the past, where a small change in one fact can lead to large consequences in a later state. Many cultural works explore this concept, but the most famous is certainly the 2004 movie "The Butterfly Effect" (congratulations on creativity), starring Ashton Kutcher and Amy Smart.

In fact, if time travel were possible, the universe would be a mess, no matter how innocent the act might seem. Imagine that you go back in time just to look at a quiet town in the German countryside, far away from the madness of the modern world. You see a beautiful lady in a park and strike up a very brief and casual conversation with her. At that moment, another guy, who thought you were a couple, walks by without paying any attention.

Nothing to change the world, right? Wait, I didn't tell you that this woman and the man who walked by were the parents of Albert Einstein, and because of your two-minute dialogue with his future mother, they never met.

Given the explanation, come with me to discover how chess has changed the history of our world, and let us use our imagination to presume how it would have been if some of the facts about famous historical figures had gone slightly different.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 - CHRISTOPHER COLUMBUS: THE RISE OF 'INCALAND'

2 - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE: THE FINAL FALL OF FRANCE

3 - ALAN TURING: SAVING SPECIES FROM EXTINCTION

4 - CHARLEMAGNE: A BLUNDER DECIDES THE FATE OF EUROPE

5 - BENJAMIN FRANKLIN: AN INTERRUPTED REVOLUTION

6 - CONCLUSION (AND A CHESS EXAMPLE)

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CHRISTOPHER COLUMBUS: THE RISE OF 'INCALAND'

Christopher Columbus (August 25, 1451 - May 20, 1506) was an Italian navigator from the Republic of Genoa who completed four Spanish-based voyages across the Atlantic Ocean. His expeditions were the first known European contact with South America. What you may not know is that thanks to chess, he got the project approval to embark on his adventure of discovering new lands.

Like any big business today, Columbus' campaign struggled to find sponsors. The goal was to create a new route that would reach Asia by sailing west, crossing the Atlantic Ocean, and avoiding Constantinople, which was controlled by the Ottomans.

He first presented his proposal to King John II of Portugal, the most important maritime power of the time. However, the monarch rejected Columbus' plan and decided to explore the possibility of reaching India by sailing around the African continent instead.

This situation led him to emigrate from Portugal, and around 1485, he went to the Kingdom of Aragon and Castile, present-day Spain. When the project was presented to King Ferdinand II of Aragon, it was initially rejected again, but Columbus and Queen Isabella of Castile, who had liked the idea, did not give up and waited for a more favorable opportunity to revive the enterprise.

It is now that chess enters this narrative. According to the story told by Hernando del Pulgar, King Ferdinand's secretary, the king was very fond of the game and enjoyed playing it with his "usual victims", among them Juan Rodríguez de Fonseca, the royal chaplain.

That afternoon, while playing, Ferdinand was asked if there had been a decision on the project. Annoyed, he said he would answer after the game, but his position on the board was quite bad. Isabella understood that the moment was not opportune and waited for the game to progress, hoping that things would improve, and his mood would change.

Miraculously, this situation arose. When all seemed lost and the king was about to resign, the queen saw a winning combination. She approached him and said that he had a mate in five. Ferdinand, satisfied, began to think, and finally found the right moves.  

Thanks to this victory, the monarch was so happy that he agreed to Columbus' proposal. The queen immediately told him the good news, thus initiating the process that led to the discovery of the New World.

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NAPOLEON BONAPARTE: THE FINAL FALL OF FRANCE

Napoleon Bonaparte (August 15, 1769 - May 5, 1821) was a French political leader who rose to prominence during the French Revolution. He was the leader of the French Republic from 1799 to 1804, when he crowned himself Emperor of the French Empire and continued to expand his power until 1814.

After supporting the French Revolution in 1789 and commanding many successful military campaigns across Europe from 1796 to 1814, known as the Napoleonic Wars, he became a national hero. His victories, including the Battle of Austerlitz, led to the dissolution of the Holy Roman Empire.

In 1812, Napoleon invaded Russia, which ended in a disastrous retreat during winter. Prussia and Austria then joined Russia to decisively defeat France at Leipzig. The coalition captured Paris and forced him to abdicate in April 1814. After being exiled and escaping from the Mediterranean island of Elba, he regained power in February 1815 in what became known as the “Hundred Days”. His opponents responded by forming the Seventh Coalition, defeating him at the Battle of Waterloo in June 1815. Napoleon was then exiled to the remote island of Saint Helena in the South Atlantic, where he died in 1821.

But what about chess? Despite frequent claims that his games are all manipulated, some of them are regularly found in books and databases. During his exile in St. Helena, he often played against General Bertrand.

Napoleon is also perhaps the most famous victim of the Mechanical Turk, during a visit to Vienna in 1809. According to reports, he deliberately tried to make an illegal move three times. In response, the machine waved its arm and knocked all the pieces off the board, leaving him amused. He then played a proper game and resigned in nineteen moves.

Below is one of his games, played against Claire, Comtesse de Rémusat, in 1804:

Now for the part that changed history. The story goes that while he was on St. Helena, his supporters sent him a chess set of ivory pieces. Since his love of the game was well known and would not arouse suspicion, they hid inside it a detailed escape plan from the island. Napoleon played many games with the set but didn't discover the hidden secret because the officer responsible for delivering it and informing him of its contents died during the voyage.

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ALAN TURING: SAVING SPECIES FROM EXTINCTION

As usual, I will now use one of the topics for something more "personal". Alan Mathison Turing (June 23, 1912 - June 7, 1954), an English mathematician, was one of the most brilliant minds of the 20th century. This genius is widely regarded as the father of computer science, as he was highly influential in the development of the concepts of algorithms and computation with the Turing machine, a crude model of a computer.

But how does chess fit in? Well, Turing considered our beloved game to be the ideal starting point for research in the field of artificial intelligence. He is the inventor of Turochamp, the first chess program, developed in 1948. However, it was never completed, as its algorithm was too complex to run on the first computers. This program was not created for the sole purpose of playing chess, but as part of initial research in computer science and machine learning. It was able to play an entire game, albeit at a low level, against a human player.

Ok, let's not exaggerate by saying that without Turochamp there would be no AI. This statement is probably wrong because I am sure Turing would find another way and other principles to build these concepts. Mentioning the Second World War would also be inaccurate since its development began after the conflict. But still, some changes would have happened, and I can give you a concrete example.

In 2020, Air New Zealand implemented a new project that uses artificial intelligence to optimize the turn times of the aircrafts. For clarification, the definition of turn time is the time from when an aircraft stops at the gate to when it leaves the gate.

What I have never told you is that I was a small part of this project and that some of Turing's basic principles used in the invention of Turochamp were directly applied to its development. I don't have time (or permission) to go into many technical details, but I can tell you that this initiative has greatly reduced the number of delayed flights at Auckland Airport.

Tourism is a fundamental part of New Zealand's economy, and the resources it brings in are often used to protect endangered species, including the Kākāpō, a flightless type of parrot. So, I am sure this cute animal is happy that the flights are not often late.

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CHARLEMAGNE: A BLUNDER DECIDES THE FATE OF EUROPE

Charlemagne (April 2, 748 - January 28, 814) was emperor of the Carolingian Empire from the year 800 until his death fourteen years later. He united most of Western and Central Europe and was the first recognized emperor to rule in the region since the fall of the Western Roman Empire three centuries earlier.

His reign was marked by political and social changes, as he instituted several reforms in administration, law, education, military organization, and religion that shaped Europe for centuries throughout the Middle Ages.

The stability of Charlemagne's power made possible a cultural activity known as the Carolingian Renaissance. However, his position as the first Western emperor in over 300 years also brought him into conflict with the Byzantine Empire in Constantinople.

A famous legend about the Charlemagne chessmen is that they were a gift from the Caliph Harun al-Rashid. The set shows elephants instead of bishops and chariots instead of rooks, suggesting that they actually played Shatranj. This story is not confirmed, but if true, it would be evidence that chess was played in Europe centuries earlier than previously thought.

But the legend I want to tell is another anecdote. Fake? Probably. Interesting? Sure. It is about a brave soldier in the service of Charlemagne named Garin. He showed such courage that he won the admiration of the knights and the love of the ladies. Among them was the Empress herself.

However, Garin, always faithful to his master, immediately rejected her. The Empress, moved with remorse, told her husband everything. Charlemagne's reaction was to propose to the young man a game of chess with the following rules: "If you win, I will give you all my kingdoms and possessions, including my own wife. If I win, you will pay for your defeat with your life."

Garin was forced to accept, but what the emperor didn't know was that his opponent was a phenomenal chess player. With a brilliant queen sacrifice similar to the famous Légal trap, the soldier managed to checkmate his sovereign.

Charlemagne, totally dejected, said: "Garin, do as you please, take what I have promised". But Garin proved his loyalty by giving up everything he had won on the board, and the emperor was able to continue his reign.

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BENJAMIN FRANKLIN: AN INTERRUPTED REVOLUTION

Benjamin Franklin (January 17, 1706 - April 17, 1790) was an American writer, scientist, inventor, statesman, diplomat, printer, publisher, and political philosopher (phew...). Among the most influential intellectuals of his time, Franklin was one of the Founding Fathers of the United States, having drafted and signed the Declaration of Independence in 1776.

He was the first chess player known by name in the American colonies, posthumously inducted into the U.S. Chess Hall of Fame in 1999. Franklin often used the game as a cover for secret meetings to gain allies in the American Revolution. Thanks to him, the French entered the war, and independence from the British was eventually won.

In December 1774, Franklin visited England as a diplomat, seeking opportunities to play against strong chess players. One such player who challenged him was Lady Caroline Howe. As described by Prof. George Allen, she won their match quite comfortably, not least because Franklin wasn't a strong player. Did he get tilted after that? Keep it in mind. 

“[…] he found his match in this English woman, who beat him soundly and easily […] So, Franklin should be remembered more for his passion for chess rather than for his skill."

Lady Howe also introduced Franklin to her brother, Rear-Admiral Lord Richard Howe, commander of the British navy in North America, who was eager to prevent a war against their colony. For several weeks, until March 1775, he arranged secret meetings to negotiate peace under the guise of Franklin playing chess with his sister. Ultimately, no concrete results were achieved.

A year later, in 1776, just after the Continental Congress issued the Declaration of Independence, Lord Howe carried out a detailed peace proposal. Since the British didn't recognize the Continental Congress as legitimate, he sent the letter directly to Franklin, addressing him as 'my worthy friend' and mentioning the chess games in London. Howe stated that he had 'hopes of being useful in promoting the establishment of a permanent peace.'

Franklin replied on July 30, three days before the Declaration was signed, angrily rejecting the offer: "It is impossible that we should think of submission to a government whose atrocious injuries have extinguished every remaining spark of affection for that parent country we once held so dear."

Question: Could this feeling of anger toward Lord Howe be related to the fact that his sister outplayed him on the board?

CONCLUSION (AND A CHESS EXAMPLE)

I hope you enjoyed the reading. Of course, the main goal was not to imagine the absurd futuristic scenarios written above, as most of them are probably just legends or exaggerated for the sake of entertainment. The real intention was to use a well-known concept as a fun way of allowing my readers to learn something new. It's interesting to know that some historical figures who changed the course of the world enjoyed playing a little chess when they weren't busy making history. Thanks to my friend @Victor_Stepko_4 for his help.

The "Butterfly Effect" also applies to chess itself. In this famous game from the 1892 World Championship, Mikhail Chigorin was in a completely winning position against Wilhelm Steinitz. A win would level the match and give him a psychological advantage to go for the title! But one single moment perhaps changed everything. With the move 32. Bb4 (??), the Russian made one of the worst blunders in history, giving his opponent a mate in two.

What would have happened if we had a different world champion? Would Lasker have beaten Chigorin in 1894? Would his style of play have been taken as an example and shaped the future of the game? Sadly, we will never know.

To conclude this article, I would like to remind you that this concept does not only apply to big and decisive changes in the whole world but also to our everyday lives. I am sure that some decisions you took years ago, in a few seconds, changed your fate and put you in a completely different situation than it could have been if you had made another choice.

You wouldn't even know the love of your life if you hadn't decided to go to the place where you first met. If you had chosen another major to study, you might have had different jobs, friends, houses, and maybe even a different personality. Basically, we are the consequences of our own choices, and small changes can be the ones that hit the nail on the head and determine who we are today.

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Note: This text is for entertainment purposes only. If you want to join in the fun and comment on your guesses of what would have happened, feel free. But please kindly refrain from pointing out "errors" in my predictions as if they were something scientific. This is a chess blog, not an academic article