The CCT Finals: What The Numbers Say

While the chess world is distracted by the FIDE World Championship, the Champions Chess Tour Finals are fast approaching. The in-person finals run from December 17th until 21st in Oslo, Norway. It's a fitting location, as the defending champion is Norway's own, GM Magnus Carlsen. Magnus will be defending his title against seven challengers, who have come through four tour events to earn a spot in the Finals and a chance at the $200,000 first prize.

What Is The Format?

First, the eight competitors will compete in a Round-Robin stage. The top two from that event will earn tickets to the Semifinals. The next four finishers will compete in a Survival Stage to earn the remaining two semifinal spots and the last two finishers will be eliminated.  Once the Semifinals are set, the final four players will compete in a bracket to determine the finalists and eventual champion! 

The time control for the event is 10 minutes per side with a two-second increment. Tied matches will be decided by armageddon games, where players bid for time and Black will have draw odds.

Who Is Competing?

Hundreds of competitors tried to qualify for the four events of the CCT this year. Players who did well enough to reach the three divisions of each CCT tournament can qualify for the Finals by winning a Division I tournament on the tour or gaining enough points on the CCT leaderboard.

After an exciting finish, the eight finalists were:

• GM Magnus Carlsen, winner of the Chessable Masters
• GM Alireza Firouzja, winner of the Chess.com Classic
• GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, winner of the CrunchLabs Masters
• GM Ian Nepomniachtchi, the top finisher on the CCT leaderboard
• GM Wesley So, 2nd place on the CCT leaderboard
• GM Denis Lazavik, 3rd place on the CCT leaderboard
• GM Vincent Keymer, 4th place on the CCT leaderboard
• GM Levon Aronian, 5th place on the CCT leaderboard

What To Expect

The Champions Chess Tour is always an interesting look into modern opening theory. In the 2024 edition, 1.e4 has been the move of choice, played in 600 games. 1.d4 as usual is in second place, played in 465 games. 1.Nf3 was played 149 games and 1.c4 was seen in 98 games.

The 1.e4 games are most likely to lead to a Sicilian (177 games), Ruy Lopez (143 games), and the Giuoco Piano (134 games). The 1.d4 openings are more spread out, with the most common being the Queen's Gambit Declined, seen in 103 games.

If you want to make a prediction, it's rarely wise to bet against Carlsen in the Champions Chess Tour. He has won the tour championship every year since its inception. However, there's reason to think he might have a run for his money this time around. Carlsen didn't get the most points on the tour in 2024. That honor goes to Firouzja, who reached the Grand Final of every tour event and defeated Carlsen in consecutive matches to win the Chess.com Classic. You can see a critical game from those finals with annotations by GM Rafael Leitao below.

While Carlsen is the only player to win two tournaments on the tour this year, Firouzja has won the most games of any participant, with 28 victories. Carlsen and Wesley So tied for 2nd place with 23 victories each.

Carlsen and Firouzja split six matches against each other on this year's tour and took the top two spots. Carlsen, Firouzja, and Nepomniachtchi were also the only players to qualify for the top division in every event of the year. Nepomniachtchi joins Firouzja and Vachier-Lagrave as the only players to defeat Carlsen on this year's tour. Vachier-Lagrave defeated Firouzja in two matches and Carlsen in one, on his way to third place in the tour. Surprisingly, those are the only two finalists against whom Vachier-Lagrave has a winning record in matches this year. It's no surprise that Carlsen and the players who have been able to stand up to him this year took the top four spots in the tour standings and can be considered the favorites heading into the Finals.

We shouldn't discount the chances of the other four finalists. So is back after his second-place finish last year. Lazavik seems to always perform at his best in the CCT and is still, at just 18 years old, rapidly improving. Keymer has the highest win rate among any CCT finalists in 2024 events at 64 percent. The last finalist, Aronian, needs no introduction, having reached the fourth highest Elo of all time at 2830.

Who do you think will win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? Let us know in the comments.